MNM3G022: Scenario Analysis

Module code: MNM3G022

Module provider: International Business and Strategy; Henley Business School

Credits: 10

Level: 7

When you'll be taught: Semester 2

Module convenor: Dr Peter McManners, email: p.j.mcmanners@reading.ac.uk

Pre-requisite module(s):

Co-requisite module(s):

Pre-requisite or Co-requisite module(s):

Module(s) excluded:

Placement information: No placement specified

Academic year: 2024/5

Available to visiting students:

Talis reading list:

Last updated: 19 November 2024

Overview

Module aims and purpose

Aim: This module defines scenario analysis applied in support of strategy. It is framed within the context of a changing and uncertain business environment where political, economic, social and environmental parameters are in a state of flux. The aim is to expand the strategy toolbox to open out analysis to considering a more diverse range of possible futures. Strategy which includes such scenario analysis can equip organisations with the dynamic flexibility required to exploit the opportunities of the 21st century. 

Purpose: Scenario analysis is making resurgence as a tool in support of strategy in response to an increasingly uncertain global business environment. Rapid change in technology and processes is taking place in a world facing difficult challenges, such as economic instability, responding to climate change and dealing with the potential dangers of political problems in the Middle East and elsewhere. Looking beyond such immediate challenges, in the not-too-distant future, business will have to respond to the emerging challenge of a global economy coming up against resource limits. In such circumstances, making accurate forecasts of the future is almost impossible, but scenario analysis provides a way to open strategy thinking to a range of possible futures. An understanding of how to deal with uncertainty is critical to strategy formulation in today’s complex globalised world. 

Module learning outcomes

By the end of the module, it is expected that the student will be able to: 

1. Frame a scenario analysis in support of strategy; 
2. Generate scenarios of the future which are appropriate to the organisation and the circumstances it faces, which are richly detailed, though-provoking and plausible; 
3. Be able to reflect on how scenarios can be used in support of strategy within an organisation. 

Module content

• The strategic context: Insights into the nature of the uncertain future of an increasingly complex global business environment and how scenarios can help to craft strategy which can deliver business success despite this uncertainty. 
• The development and application of scenarios: The theory of scenarios and how they have been applied and the lessons for corporate strategists. 
• Scenario Case Study: A real-world recent worked example of how a major multinational corporation has used scenarios, including pointers to what works and what does not. 
• Linking Scenarios to strategy: Explanation of how scenarios support the strategic process (complementing the Strategy module teaching). 
• Scenario practical group exercise within the one-day workshop: An exercise which works through the stages of a particular scenario methodology. 

Structure

Teaching and learning methods

The principles and theory of scenario analysis are explained and real-world examples used to show how it can be applied within organisations. A particular methodology is presented which meshes neatly with the Strategy module. 

The learning transmission will be through studying on-line content and through the workshop. Before the workshop, participants will be invited to read selected material on scenario analysis as it relates to strategy. This will include insights into the application of scenarios and the strategic approach within which scenario analysis fits. The one-day workshop will focus on the use of scenarios in practice and has a group scenario exercise running through the day to give hands-on experience. Following the workshop, participants will have the opportunity to carry out a scenario exercise for their organisation and present the results in a report which will be examined. The timing depends on cohort start date and could be in any semester. 

Study hours

At least 8 hours of scheduled teaching and learning activities will be delivered in person, with the remaining hours for scheduled and self-scheduled teaching and learning activities delivered either in person or online. You will receive further details about how these hours will be delivered before the start of the module.

Please note the independent study hours above are notional numbers of hours; each student will approach studying in different ways. We would advise you to reflect on your learning and the number of hours you are allocating to these tasks.

Semester 1 The hours in this column may include hours during the Christmas holiday period.

Semester 2 The hours in this column may include hours during the Easter holiday period.

Summer The hours in this column will take place during the summer holidays and may be at the start and/or end of the module.

Assessment

Requirements for a pass

Students need to achieve an overall module mark of 50% to pass this module. 

Summative assessment

Penalties for late submission of summative assessment

This module is subject to the Penalties for late submission for Postgraduate Flexible programmes policy, which can be found at:

/cqsd/-/media/project/functions/cqsd/documents/qap/penaltiesforlatesubmissionpgflexible.pdf

The Module Convenor will apply the following penalties to work submitted late:

• where the piece of work is submitted up to one calendar month after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): 10% of the total marks available for that piece of work will be deducted from the mark; 
• where the piece of work is submitted more than one calendar month after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): a mark of zero will be recorded.

You are strongly advised to ensure that coursework is submitted by the relevant deadline. You should note that it is advisable to submit work in an unfinished state rather than to fail to submit any work.

Formative assessment

Formative assessment is any task or activity which creates feedback (or feedforward) for you about your learning, but which does not contribute towards your overall module mark.

Reassessment

Additional costs