MTMCW01-Causal Inference and Decision-making

Module Provider: Meteorology
Number of credits: 10 [5 ECTS credits]
Level:7
Terms in which taught: Spring term module
Pre-requisites: MTMC01 Foundations of Statistical Inference
Non-modular pre-requisites:
Co-requisites:
Modules excluded:
Current from: 2023/4

Module Convenor: Prof Rosalind Cornforth
Email: r.j.cornforth@reading.ac.uk

Module Co-convenor: Dr Celia Petty
Email: e.c.petty@reading.ac.uk

Type of module:

Summary module description:

A module comprising both a lecture and a practical component, which together introduce students to the use of causal inference and decision-making methods, with application to climate science and analysis of socio-economic impacts of climate risk.Ìý

Aims:

To help students attain the ability to apply critical reasoning with causal inference and to apply this to practical decision-making situations. Through real-world case studies of decision-making situations, key aspects of deterministic and probabilistic reasoning will be presented to allow students to gain insights into correlation and causation and the role of causal inference in climate risk modelling and decision making.Ìý

Assessable learning outcomes:

By the end of this module, the student should be able to:

• Describe the main concepts in causal inference and decision-making


• Select and compare appropriate analysis methods


• Critically analyse reports of risk analysis and draw correct inferences

Additional outcomes:

• Discuss the development and importance of causal methods in statistics


• Appraise and criticise quoted inferences (transferable skill)

Outline content:

• Risk Assessment – the need for causal, explanatory modelsÌý


• Causal Inference (CI) – overview and fundamental concepts


• Building a Casual Network – using expert knowledge and sourcing data


• Identification of Causal Effects – rules of causal inference, good and bad controlsÌý


• Estimation of Causal Effects – deterministic and probabilistic methods


• Decision Analysis andDecision Trees


• Modelling Risk


• CI for Decision Making – overview and examples of the storyline approach


• Advanced CI – causal discovery with machine learning


• Advanced CI – planning and visualising policy optionsÌý

Brief description of teaching and learning methods:

Lectures, computer-based practicals, and guided independent study.Ìý

Contact hours:

Ìý	Autumn	Spring	Summer
Lectures		10
Practicals classes and workshops		20
Guided independent study:	Ìý	Ìý	Ìý
Ìý Ìý Wider reading (independent)		20
Ìý Ìý Wider reading (directed)		10
Ìý Ìý Advance preparation for classes		5
Ìý Ìý Preparation for presentations		5
Ìý Ìý Preparation of practical report		20
Ìý Ìý Completion of formative assessment tasks		5
Ìý Ìý Reflection		5
Ìý	Ìý	Ìý	Ìý
Total hours by term	0	100	0
Ìý	Ìý	Ìý	Ìý
Total hours for module	100

Summative Assessment Methods:

Method	Percentage
Written assignment including essay	100

Summative assessment- Examinations:

Summative assessment- Coursework and in-class tests:

Two assignments, similar in nature to the practicals, but more elaborated.

Formative assessment methods:

Unassessed problem sheets on each section of material, in the practical sessions.

Penalties for late submission:

The below information applies to students on taught programmes except those on Postgraduate Flexible programmes. Penalties for late submission, and the associated procedures, which apply to Postgraduate Flexible programmes are specified in the policy 'Penalties for late submission for Postgraduate Flexible programmes', which can be found here: /cqsd/-/media/project/functions/cqsd/documents/cqsd-old-site-documents/penaltiesforlatesubmissionpgflexible.pdf
The Support Centres will apply the following penalties for work submitted late:

• where the piece of work is submitted after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): 10% of the total marks available for that piece of work will be deducted from the mark for each working day (or part thereof) following the deadline up to a total of five working days;
• where the piece of work is submitted more than five working days after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): a mark of zero will be recorded.

The University policy statement on penalties for late submission can be found at: /cqsd/-/media/project/functions/cqsd/documents/cqsd-old-site-documents/penaltiesforlatesubmission.pdf
You are strongly advised to ensure that coursework is submitted by the relevant deadline. You should note that it is advisable to submit work in an unfinished state rather than to fail to submit any work.

Assessment requirements for a pass:

50%

Reassessment arrangements:

Completion of new assignment equivalent to the missed summative assignments.

Additional Costs (specified where applicable):

1) Required text books:Ìý

2) Specialist equipment or materials:Ìý

3) Specialist clothing, footwear or headgear:Ìý

4) Printing and binding:Ìý

5) Computers and devices with a particular specification:Ìý

6) Travel, accommodation and subsistence:Ìý

Last updated: 18 September 2023